Earthquake Prediction
Assessing the risk and likelihood of future shocks.
Results of the RELM Project (SRL 2007)
Seismological Research Letters published a special issue in 2007 on the "free market" group experiment called the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project. All the articles are online here.
Seismological Research Letters published a special issue in 2007 on the "free market" group experiment called the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project. All the articles are online here.
OpenSHA
Open Seismic Hazard Analysis is a project to build and share code to conduct seismic hazard analyses in a "community modeling environment."
Open Seismic Hazard Analysis is a project to build and share code to conduct seismic hazard analyses in a "community modeling environment."
Earthquake Prediction: Mission Impossible
Quake prediction is best left to the quacks, say the scientists.
Quake prediction is best left to the quacks, say the scientists.
The Tokai Earthquake of 20xx
Japan has been preparing for it for over 25 years.
Japan has been preparing for it for over 25 years.
Real-Time Forecast of Earthquake Hazard in the Next 24 Hours
Mainly a map of aftershock zones, this new feature from the US Geological Survey aims to raise awareness of the California earthquake hazard.
Mainly a map of aftershock zones, this new feature from the US Geological Survey aims to raise awareness of the California earthquake hazard.
GeoForecaster Exposed
This firm offering weekly earthquake forecasts treats its data with smoke and mirrors. The state is leaning on it--not for fraud, but for not having a license.
This firm offering weekly earthquake forecasts treats its data with smoke and mirrors. The state is leaning on it--not for fraud, but for not having a license.
Stress-Triggered Earthquakes
A moderate quake near Big Bear, California illustrates the new stress-triggering theory of earthquake occurrence.
A moderate quake near Big Bear, California illustrates the new stress-triggering theory of earthquake occurrence.
"The Day the Earth Stood Still"
About the media breakdown over Iben Browning's bogus earthquake prediction in 1990, a reprint on the Indiana University School of Journalism wonderful ethics site.
About the media breakdown over Iben Browning's bogus earthquake prediction in 1990, a reprint on the Indiana University School of Journalism wonderful ethics site.
"Do Lost Pet Ads Predict Earthquakes?"
A science fair project by Dan Ross (age 10) and Andy Michael of the U.S. Geological Survey.
A science fair project by Dan Ross (age 10) and Andy Michael of the U.S. Geological Survey.
Earthquake Prediction at the Russian Academy of Sciences
An ingenious group led by the great Vladimir Keilis-Borok features predictions, mostly negative, along with their algorithms.
An ingenious group led by the great Vladimir Keilis-Borok features predictions, mostly negative, along with their algorithms.
"Earthquake Prediction, Societal Implications"
Keiiti Aki discussed predictions and what to do about them in Reviews of Geophysics in 1995.
Keiiti Aki discussed predictions and what to do about them in Reviews of Geophysics in 1995.
"Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted"
This classic 1996 article from Science hit the seismological community like a thunderclap.
This classic 1996 article from Science hit the seismological community like a thunderclap.
"Is the Study of Earthquakes a Basic Science?"
Thomas Jordan's 1997 editorial in Seismological Research Letters is a rallying cry for prediction research and researchers, who he says will break through to new science.
Thomas Jordan's 1997 editorial in Seismological Research Letters is a rallying cry for prediction research and researchers, who he says will break through to new science.
National Academy of Science Colloquium
Earthquake prediction was the subject of this 1996 meeting; the resulting papers in the NAS Proceedings are online here, a useful source of background and references from the leading workers.
Earthquake prediction was the subject of this 1996 meeting; the resulting papers in the NAS Proceedings are online here, a useful source of background and references from the leading workers.
QuakeSim
QuakeSim is a NASA-JPL project to model southern California and its tectonic and seismic behavior. Its forecast scorecard is worth studying.
QuakeSim is a NASA-JPL project to model southern California and its tectonic and seismic behavior. Its forecast scorecard is worth studying.
Research Center for Earthquake Prediction
This group at Kyoto University shows what real scientists are studying these days.
This group at Kyoto University shows what real scientists are studying these days.
Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM)
A cutting-edge cooperative project of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center to develop forecasting models for southern California.
A cutting-edge cooperative project of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center to develop forecasting models for southern California.