It's human nature to grasp at certainty, and that seems like it would be a survival advantage. A brain that can assess a situation and see a course of action on the basis of scant data can get you out of a pickle; a group of similar brains can be quickly persuaded to act as a team. This talent misfires when a mob (say a busload of schoolkids) picks a scapegoat, when students graduate college holding wildly wrong ideas, and when scientists get stuck in an intellectual cul-de-sac.
The unruly kids can often be straightened out by a few words from an adult. The mistaken student can be reached, but it takes a teacher who knows the "magic bullet" that forces the student to rethink what previously seemed certain.
What do scientists do? I think that a cherished hope in a young scientist is to find a magic bullet that will change the community's mind. But the community holds strongly to its chosen conversation. One paper or one talk will never make it change, not even one long career. I think that in science, magic bullets are a myth. The key to progress is in the group mind, which moves in mysterious ways.
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