Scientist and author Bill McGuire wants us all to know that global warming could "persuade the ground to shake, volcanoes to rumble and tsunamis to crash on to unsuspecting coastlines." His article in The Guardian on Sunday is getting lots of page views. It's basically a brief for McGuire's new book, Waking the Giant: How a changing climate triggers earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes published by Oxford University Press.
This is the state of popular science nowadays: actual research has interesting things to say about crustal stress and its effects on natural hazards, but a major academic publisher seeks readers through a professional hand-wringer known for doomsday scenarios. And a major world newspaper publishes the author's own tendentious press release rather than an independent review.
I have not read the book. I assume that it presents much good research with citations and everything. McGuire's topic is cutting-edge. For instance, in America an earnest discussion is underway about the New Madrid seismic zone, where spectacular earthquakes occurred 200 years ago—are these seismic events related to stress changes when the glaciers melted? If so, perhaps they have finished; if not, they can be expected to recur. The question has real consequences for policymakers. Speculation (that is, scientific papers) also addresses the possibilities of tipping the balance for volcanic magma chambers and unstable slopes on land and the seafloor. In all these cases, the object of discussion is not how catastrophes will be triggered, but whether their schedule may accelerate.
So until reviews come out by knowledgeable readers (or I have a chance to review the actual book myself), read McGuire's article very carefully—don't exaggerate beyond his exact wording. And expect the worst, namely, doomsday outbursts from people whose lives center around the delicious prospect of the world ending.
Comments
Bravo, about what I would have said. The problem with journalism is and always has been to print what sells, and blood and disaster is what sells, whether it’s really science or not.
I echo #1’s sentiments
well done
It would need a drastic change of climate to precipitate such disasters. A new ice age would lower sea levels and load parts of the tectonic plate system which could cause quakes and eruptions but these changes are slow as is melting of ice sheets and the plate rebound. Scotland is still reacting to the last melting 10,000 years ago but whether any subsequent earthquakes were caused by this unloading is up for debate.
There is probably a greater risk of quakes caused by the changing gravitation fields from the moon and sun. These are changing on a daily basis and I have tried to find a connection between quakes and moon phase but there is no obvious connection with the data I have but I ignore any quakes below R3 so as not to swamp my system with data.
We must remember that the USGS and the BGS both have increased global seismic monitoring coverage to claims of increased quakes could be due to better data collection not a quake increase.
I have two words for Mr. McGuire – hog wash! (or maybe that’s supposed to be one word)
Unfortunately a lot of people love scaring the wits out of us. My attitude is Come what may and I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it! Everyone should just relax, and enjoy the life around you. Nancy
My university coursework includes 19 years of formal education, 7 years after a college prep diploma from a public school offering courses such as Boolean Algebra taught by a Harvard graduate. University classes include two years of engineering calculus, one year of physics, geology, ecology, etc.
All that said, is it not possible the energy from underground nuclear tests, the assault on the atmosphere from manmade disasters, such as September 11, 2001 and the subsequent wars in the Middle East have accelerated the natural evolution of the planet earth? It would take far more than my knowledge and mathematical abilities to say without question how much time is left. However, if one assumes the expansion of Gaiea formed the continents, then it seems logical to assume the worst destruction of a continent would be the largest continent – ASIA. If indeed, the planet earth is imploding, it explains a great deal of catastrophic phenomena, such as Japan’s catastrophic tsunamis and earthquakes.
Just some food for thought; also an argument for less destruction by mankind of planet earth.
Thanks Mr. Andrew Alden, Am relieveddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd.