Let's tell the story straight: in early 2009 people in Italy were having a series of small earthquakes. The authorities, rightly, said that nothing could be predicted. A lone researcher claimed to predict a large quake using radon emissions (which, I said, is like predicting the Dow Industrial Index from the behavior of IBM). He rented sound trucks and urged people to flee. People got more upset. The Civil Protection minister consulted a group of seismologists, then issued an irresponsible statement in his own words that "the scientific community tells me there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." People calmed down. A large earthquake struck L'Aquila a week later killing 308 people.
Your question: Who should go to prison for this situation? My answer: Nobody. Italy's answer: That minister and those scientists he talked to because they didn't tell people to skip town en masse and leave their homes unguarded for an unknown period of time. Nature News Blog reports that indictments have been issued and a trial is set for September.
To any scientist with a desire, or an obligation, to inform the public it's the nightmare that won't go away.
Comments
Now thats a shaker!
Hmmm. Maybe we need to re-visit the idea of taking funds and not producing results. We need to remember that taxpayers expect results for their money. At the very least we scientists need to get better at communicating to the public, in a way THEY understand. We are not existing in a bubble of our own making. Most, if not all of our research money comes from the work others have done. We have a responsibilty to at least respond in kind.
Apparently, the “lone predictor” predicted the epicenter would be 55 km south of L’Aquila. Had there been an evacuation, people would have been evacuated up to L’Aquila!
On the other hand, there is a growing mountain of evidence that earthquakes can be forecasted, possibly as accurately as the weather. But, it requires multiple precursor measurements – going on just one phenomenon, like radon emission, is poor science.
For a summary of the L’Aquila case, as provided to LaRouche PAC by Italian earthquake precursor scientist Francesco Biagi, go here
For a LaRouche PAC interview with Russian precursor scientist Sergei Pulinets, who surveys the entire gamut of earthquake precursors, with application to the March 11 Japan quake, go here.
We should know the earthquakes are produced by different causes. By a stone falling from the sky, we can reach the threshold. An unusual solar activity, an unusual earth inside and core activity, passage of meteor and comets like Halley every 80 years .. COULD BE REGULAR BUT THE PERIOD IS TOO LONG TO BE PREDICTED.
But, some scientists believe the regular earthquakes could be predicted using the length of fault.
“Scientific prediction” is definitely more “precise” for tsunamis, and volcanic eruption. But when it comes to precise earthquake activity with current scientific method, one cannot go beyond a “prediction”, and predictions typically do not come w/ Richter scale measurements, just probabilities.
Science is knowledge and general truths of the operation of the physical world. Nothing in the scientific realm is precise when it comes to earthquakes., i.e. “how many people will die”,”what will be the magnitude”, or “how much damage will it cause”..,
I’m not sure what’s going on in Italian “authorities” minds right now, but this is a truly unfair to blame the scientists. I agree with Mr. Alden’s opinion, no one should be blamed for the unfortunate losses.
It is an individual’s choice for believing or disbelieving a scientifically based “prediction” and predictions are never precise, just probabilities.
Duane Shaw, I know what you mean, but how else are we EVER going to be able to get accurate predictions?
We need to fund research now, but lots of people want us to be able to predict them now as well. These things take a great many years of study.
Like radio-active decay or any chaotic system, it may prove eventually to be unpredictable, but we are never going to know without studying it are we?
I’m with Andrew Alden on this. People are always predicting the sky is falling in. Occasional one gets it right by coincidence. That makes people wonder why the professionals “failed”. Well, if a professional issues a warning and it’s wrong, then it is a disaster and they are not believed in the future. So these people can make o end of incorrect predictions until they get one right. A Professional has only to make a single mistake to ruin their career.
What’s to predict the earth surface is always moving isn’t it!
You could blame the candlestick maker because the candles burned quicker than usual the night prior to the earthquake being unable to see all the indicators and charts clearly there was less time due to less light since the candles burned so quickly or is it the baker did not get the breakfast muffins out on time which caused people to be delayed and that delay caused them to still be at the bakery during the earthquake yeah its should be all the candlestick makers and the bakers whom should be included in the trial, the trial of inconclusive evidence of meandering thoughts of blame.
Ya i am with Andrew. Nowbody should punish. Till today there isn’t any such sucessful forcasting method for earthquake.
If it weren’t for the fact that serious minded scientists are involved in this apparently serious legal witch hunt, the entire issue and Italian officials involved are laughable buffoons at best, and incredibly ignorant!
I thought the Inquisition period and the Dark Ages ended centuries ago! Incredible!
Too Bad the lawyers were not killed in the earthquake.
Albeit drastic, they are at the forefront of effective earthquake prediction just the same. One of the guys on trial said the time would be better spent “Drinking expensive wine” roughly translated from Italian, and there are starting to be too many deaths while great scientists like HIM do nothing but drink expensive wine! Prosecution in this matter should hopefully help bring more frequent earthquake alerts to the forefront in affected regions!
Excellent idea! The best science has always come from the threat of punishment!