The California Scenario

Thursday the US Geological Survey released a detailed look at what will happen the next time the San Andreas fault lets loose. (The Associated Press has this preview.) Put together with about 300 experts in quakes, fires, and emergency response, the Shakeout Scenario will be used later this year for a massive earthquake drill in southern California.

The design quake is magnitude 7.8, about the same size as last week's Chinese quake and the 1906 San Francisco quake. It takes place on a Thursday morning along the southernmost stretch of the San Andreas fault and rips the ground apart from the Salton Sea to Palmdale in the space of 120 seconds. It shakes up a region with 22 million people in it. It kills about 700 outright, plus about 1100 more in the widespread fires that will follow. It causes some $200 billion in damage to homes, buildings, land and infrastructure. It will happen for real some day. We don't know when, but this scenario will help us train for it, just as Tokyo uses its Tokai earthquake scenario.

Get to know the southern San Andreas fault
_{Scenario quake — Geology Guide image}