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Andrew's Geology Blog

By Andrew Alden, About.com Guide to Geology since 1997

"Fulfillment of the forecast" at Parkfield

Tuesday September 28, 2004
The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) declares that today's 6.0 earthquake at Parkfield is "the fulfillment of the forecast" made 20 years ago. It's only about 10 years late. Today's quake is not a repeat of the previous earthquakes there, which were so similar to each other that scientists considered them a model of the "characteristic earthquake" hypothesis. However, CISN says "the occurrence of 9/28/04 earthquake confirms, belatedly, the science that underlies the forecast for the quake."

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