Quake forecasters are 2 for 3

The earthquake forecast issued by a UCLA research group expired yesterday without a 6.4 event in the target region. Still, Vladimir Keilis-Borok and his fellow researchers have scored two for three, having made successful forecasts for the December 2003 Hokkaido and the December 2003 San Simeon quakes. Their method, called RTP for "reverse tracing of precursors," shows promise and, although it doesn't include a physical theory behind it, is reproducible.