San Simeon Quake Matches Prediction
Thursday March 4, 2004
A leading forecasting scheme has correctly anticipated the 22 December 2003 earthquake in San Simeon, California.
A team led by John Rundle, of the University of California Davis, announced a ten-year test of its Phase Dynamical Probability Change (PDPC) algorithm two years ago in the National Academy of Science Proceedings. The team's map of central and southern California showed hot spots where magnitude 5-plus quakes are more likely to occur before 2010. Until the San Simeon event, six quakes of that size have fallen on a hot spot. Recently Rundle learned that some earthquake records from the San Simeon area were outside his original database; when he added them, a new hot spot appeared at San Simeon. Rundle's team issued an updated scorecard Tuesday showing the Significant Seven.
What spots are still hot? Coalinga, Paicines, Kernville, Ridgecrest, San Fernando, Pasadena, and south of the Salton Sea among others. Remember, this is a bleeding-edge experiment, not a forecast, and the quakes under consideration are—with all respect to those who died in San Simeon—not Big Ones. A forecast map for larger events would look quite different. Don't assume you're safe—but don't assume you're doomed, either.
Learn more about earthquake prediction science and preparedness elsewhere on my site. And find out more about the large collaboration that encompasses Rundle's work at the Regional Eearthquake Likelihood Models and QuakeSim sites.
A team led by John Rundle, of the University of California Davis, announced a ten-year test of its Phase Dynamical Probability Change (PDPC) algorithm two years ago in the National Academy of Science Proceedings. The team's map of central and southern California showed hot spots where magnitude 5-plus quakes are more likely to occur before 2010. Until the San Simeon event, six quakes of that size have fallen on a hot spot. Recently Rundle learned that some earthquake records from the San Simeon area were outside his original database; when he added them, a new hot spot appeared at San Simeon. Rundle's team issued an updated scorecard Tuesday showing the Significant Seven.
What spots are still hot? Coalinga, Paicines, Kernville, Ridgecrest, San Fernando, Pasadena, and south of the Salton Sea among others. Remember, this is a bleeding-edge experiment, not a forecast, and the quakes under consideration are—with all respect to those who died in San Simeon—not Big Ones. A forecast map for larger events would look quite different. Don't assume you're safe—but don't assume you're doomed, either.
Learn more about earthquake prediction science and preparedness elsewhere on my site. And find out more about the large collaboration that encompasses Rundle's work at the Regional Eearthquake Likelihood Models and QuakeSim sites.
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